Research and Markets: 1Q10 Portugal Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Portugal Will Have 17.2 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/c88d5a/1q10_portugal_mobi) has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "1Q10 Portugal Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Portugal will have 17.2 million mobile subscribers in 2014 with TMN enjoying higher EBITDA margins than Vodafone and Optimus over the next five years" to their offering.

Mobile Operator Forecast on Portugal provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Portuguese wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for Portugal include: TMN -Telecomunicaes Mveis Nacionais S.A., Vodafone Portugal, Comunicaes Pessoais, S.A., and Optimus Telecomunicaes, S.A. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the worlds population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

So what is IEMRs Forecast?

Total mobile subscribers in Portugal to reach 17.2 million in 2014

• We forecast that the number of total wireless subscriber accounts in Portugal will increase from 15.9 million in 2009 to 17.2 million in 2014.
• All operators will see their numbers of subscribers increase over the next five years. We expect TMN's subscriber base to increase from 7.05 million in 2009 to 7.59 million in 2014.
• Also, our model predicts that Vodafone Portugals mobile subscriber base will increase from 5.66 million to 6.03 million and that of Optimus will increase from 3.26 to 3.59 million over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014.

Our model does not predict significant changes in market shares over the next five years

• Our model forecasts that TMN will continue to be the largest operator in Portugal's wireless space with a subscriber market share of approximately 44.1% over the next five years.
• We expect that Vodafone Portugal's market share will decrease slightly from 35.4% to 35.0% while that of Optimus rises from 20.4% to 20.9% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014.

ARPUs will continue to decline from 2009 to 2014

• All of the three wireless carriers will see their ARPUs decrease over the next five years. We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will fall from 16.81 in 2009 to 14.47 in 2014.
• We expect that monthly ARPUs at TMN, Vodafone Portugal, and Optimus will also decline to 14.93, 14.77, and 13.01 respectively in 2014.

EBITDA margins to remain stable over the next several years

• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will at approximately 38% over the next five years.
• TMN will continue to enjoy a higher level of profitability than Vodafone Portugal and Optimus. Our model forecasts that EBITDA margins at TMN, Vodafone Portugal, and Optimus will be approximately 43.4%, 37.7%, and 24.8% in 2014.

Companies Mentioned:

• TMN -Telecomunicaes Mveis Nacionais S.A.
• Vodafone Portugal, Comunicaes Pessoais, S.A.
• Optimus Telecomunicaes, S.A.

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/c88d5a/1q10_portugal_mobi.

Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager,
press@researchandmarkets.com
U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907
Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716